| Author | How did liches go before bowmen? |
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https://www.lordswm.com/war.php?lt=-1&warid=931232865
Bows had 11.1 ini and liches had 10 ini. Even in the extremely unlucky case of bow getting 0 atb boost and liches getting 10% atb boost, bows should have a 0.1 ini advantage. |
No, that's not correct.
In the most extreme case, liches would have a head start of .1 ATB. vs bowmen. At 10 initiative, it would take the liches 9/10 (0.9) turn to fill up his bar, where as it would take bowmen 10/11 (0.909) turn.
So these liches can be ahead (by 0.009 turn). |
| Sorry, 10/11.1, or 0.9009 turn. Still greater than 0.9 |
for Omar Contreras:
Oh wait so it's 0.1 atb boost and not a 10% boost to ini? That makes sense, but still wow that was quite extremely unlikely. |
| yeah, extremely bad luck. but sadly happens to us all |
You can easily count max starting initiative by deviding full stack's initiative by 0.9. Thus 10/0.9 is 11.1111
Very rare situation, the only chance is when they get full burst (1/11 chance) and bows get zero boost (1/11). So the chance is only 1/121 :) |
Ah ok 1 in 121 is pretty unlikely but not as low as I thought.
I didn't realize that the atb boost has to be an integer between 0 and 10 in percent. If it had less variance then the probability would be higher, and if it was fair/continuous then it would be 1 in 22,200! Which is EXTREMELY unlikely :D
PS: If anyone is interested why it's 1 in 22,200:
Let x be bowmen's boost and y be lich' boost both between 0 and 1.
(10-x)/11.1 > (10-y)/10
A bit of algebra yields
y > (11+10x)/11.1
Consider the graph of y = (11+10x)/11.1
Also consider the lines x=0, x=1, y=0 and y=1.
Then, geometrically the probability of success is 1 in 22,200.
Thanks for the information guys! ^^ |
Resident statistician strikes again :)
QATC, thanks all :D |
| closed by Meshy (2018-11-15 12:55:22) |
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