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| Author | Card tournament winnings |
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This is not a how-to-win guide, but a collection of values concerning the card tournaments, some of which may be surprising to at least some of you.
-- Reference --
https://www.lordswm.com/help.php?section=44
*scroll to the bottom*
-- Question 1 --
Since we need to pay a certain fee each time we enter the tournament, and we can only get some gold back if we manage to win enough rounds to get the prizes. It is natural to ask:
>> Assuming that we have a 50% chance of winning each round, what is our expected return from playing the card tournament?
Here's the calculated values:
Type Expected return
---------------------------------------------
Gambler's League -156.25
Golden Deck -242.1875
Sunny City -242.1875
This means that if you have a 50% chance to win a card game, you will get the above gold (entrance fee deducted) in return each time you enter the tournament (on average).
-- Question 2 --
So participating in these tournaments with 50% win chance isn't profitable. But given this knowledge, it is natural to further ask:
>> What is the win % chance needed to break even?
And here's the values:
Type Win % for Break-even
----------------------------------------------------
Gambler's League 51.72%
Golden Deck 51.09%
Sunny City 50.93%
This means you would start gaining gold (on average) if your win % is 52% or more on any of the tournaments currently available.
-- Disclaimer --
I am just putting the values out there, this post will, in no way, help you gain anything from the card tournaments unless you improve your own win %.
In addition, your win % displayed on your profile may be different from your win % from these tournaments due to different game conditions and the presence of time pressure; caution using the win % on your profile is advised.
Furthermore, even if your win % lies significantly above the break-even chance, it does not guarantee that you get the prizes in the first few times you entered the tournaments. The statistics only ensure a positive net gold in a long run.
| also keep in mind that regular card games with 0 stakes will usually result in a higher win % than card games in the tournament.
For instance, in the tournament you will rarely meet an AFK player and you can safely assume your opponent always has the extra golden card. | Total cards
What are they?
A 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K? (:D)
.............................
Blue cards
xxx
Red cards
xxx
Green cards
xxx | not sure what you mean by total cards :o
here's 2 lists of playable cards
http://www.witchhammer.ru/lib/Gil'dii/Gil'dijaKartezhnikov/Koloda
http://angelsndemons.freeforums.org/post1105.html#p1105
and here's the how I calculate the values
http://dcdn.lordswm.com/photo-catalog/0001274/207.jpg
http://dcdn.lordswm.com/photo-catalog/0001274/208.jpg | Assuming that we have a 50% chance of winning each round
This means that if you enter a 64-player tournament 64 times, you will reach 1st place once, 2nd place once, 3rd place once, 4th place once.....63rd place once and the 64th place once.
https://www.lordswm.com/help.php?section=44
gamblers leage;
prizes: 36k, 12k, 6k and 6k, total = 60k
64 participants, 1k entrance fee, total = 64k
You will gain 60k while you spend 64k. So you lose 4k gold in 64 matches = 62.5 gold per tournament attempt on average
i can do the same for the other two card tournaments, which results in ;
46.875 for the golden deck and sunny city
GL ((64*1000)-(36000+12000+2*6000))/64
GD ((128*2000)-(150000+50000+2*25000))/128
SC ((256*2000)-(300000+100000+2*50000))/256 | That is an equally valid way to calculated the expected return, it's also more elegant imo. It does need some tinkering with, however, to make it usable for the second question.
But there seems to be some confusion concerning the Tier-ups prize.
The prize consists of three parts, awarded to the winner, the runner-up, and the third part divided equally between two semi-finalists.
I took it to mean that the Tier-up part is divided equally among the 3rd and 4th place, so each gets 3k from the 6k Tier-up pool.
But if they each get 6k, then the formula I've used did indeed give you -62.5 expected return. Ditto to GD and SC tournament.
However:
https://www.lordswm.com/pl_cardlog.php?id=4612841
2013-04-29 05:33: MGAUTO vs CreatorOfWidows (Semi-final) +3000
2013-04-21 01:59: xxmuaddib vs CreatorOfWidows (Semi-final) +6000
For a 16-man and 32-man gambler's league respectively, which are not detailed anywhere in section 44.
Now I have reasons to believe that the Card tournament in section 44 is slightly out of date..
This is a bit trouble-some for the status of the values :(
I'll try to find things out asap and update with the appropriate values. | all the 32 player tournaments are from 3:30 to 8:00 am, when not many players are online.
and 1/16 in the first round means it is a 32 player tournament, not a 16 player tournament. | Right
I am looking through the history and look at the actual gold they get at the moment:
lordswm.com/arc_tour_hist.php?id=42270
it is indeed 3rd and 4th for the full tier-up prize each
but there are half-size version with half the prizes as well or so it seems
tour 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
-------------------------
32-man GL | 18,000 6,000 3,000 3,000 (id 42259 and 42258)
64-man GL | 36,000 12,000, 6,000 6,000 (42270 and 42269)
128-man GD | 150,000 50,000 25,000 25,000 (42265 and 42243)
128-man SC | 150,000 50,000 25,000 25,000 (42267 and 42231)
still expecting to find the half-size GD (64-man) and the full SC (256-man) in the record but I'd assume (the number of players might not practically allow for a 256-man SC to take place):
tour 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
-------------------------
64-man GD | 75,000 25,000 12,500 12,500 (pending)
256-man SC | 300,000 100,000 50,000 50,000 (pending) | | maybe it starts as a 64 player. GL but if not enough people join within a certain time limit it automatically turns into a 32 player tournament and this only happens when russians are asleep | yah, that's probably the case :)
Anyway, here's an updated values covering all tournament types I've come across in the history log. Prizes are taken from the winner's game log directly and verified with other winners of the same place in a different instance of the same tournament type.
I must apologise for all the confusions I've caused.
If more variations are found, I am more than willing to update it given that I have access to the ID of the tournament in question so that the prize rewards can be rigourously checked before any action is taken.
>> Table <<
http://photo.heroeswm.ru/photo-catalog/0001274/761.jpg | no it start with 32 player
maybe it trigger with players online count |
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