| Author | luck and morale possibility |
|---|
hello everyone
plz tell me how to guess when will my luck or morale befall and of which of my troops is i have 5 morale |
| https://www.lordswm.com/help.php?section=35 |
plz tell me in easy some easy way
when will my luck or morale befall if i have 5 morale or 5 luck |
No matter how much luck / morale you have it will ALWAYS be random
:P |
many people says that it is random but i was having a friend who is blocked
i played many group battles with him and when he said i have luck before attacking enemy and after attacking he had luck |
for Poxy:
thats because he would not have had luck for many turns and you CAN calculated the cnace of a luck strike.
He only told you on the basis of chance. |
| *chance of a luck strike |
OK let me rephrase my statement
The luck/morale trigger formula is
Probability Luck Triggers = F^(1+[moves befallen so far]-[moves not befallen so far]*F/(1-F))
F is the minimum of either 0.5 or luck/10
So with 5 luck to guaruntee a luck strike, if you haven't had luck before then the equation is
1>=0.5^(1+0-X*(F/1-F))
X being the number of turns played
So on the X+1 turn you will get luck
Solving
1=0.5^(1-X(0.5/0.5))
1=0.5^(1-X(1))
1=0.5^(1-X)
Now using logs we find
log(1)/log(0.5) = 1-X
0 = 1-X
X=1
So on the X+1 turn you will get luck
You first guaranteed luck strike will be on your 2nd go IF you didn't get it on your first go
For all other moves you will have to sub the numbers in to the formula above
BUT as it says in here
https://www.lordswm.com/help.php?section=35
If you have 5 luck you will generally get 5*10% chance
So 50% chance to get luck |
| but isnt it very complicated to calculate it |
but isnt it very complicated to calculate it yes too complicated..no shortcuts :)
also don't calculate it with elf battle...lol |
plz can anyone tell me some easy way to calculate it
or if no easy way
plz can anyone calculate it for 100 turns
if i have 1 morale
if i have 2 morale
if i have 3 morale
if i have 4 morale
if i have 5 morale
plz calclate all these for 100 turns
just right
yes
no
yes
yes
no
no
no
in ur answer
when u r righting yes
on those turns morale will befall when u r typiing no on those turns morale will not befall |
Let me simplify it
1luck equals 10% chance to get luck
Same goes for morale |
this means if i have 6 morale or 6 luck then 60% chances
after rounding up
100% chances that means i will get luck or marale in every turn |
5luck is the max u can get
Its 50percent chance then
Like roulette |
Poxy look at it like this (simplified version):
1 luck: you have
1 chance out of 10 at first hit
2 chance out of 10 at second
3 chance out of 10 at third
4 chance out of 10 at fourth
...
10 chance out of 10 at tenth.
2 luck:
2 chance out of 10 at first hit
4 chance out of 10 at second
6 chance out of 10 at third
8 chance out of 10 at fourth
10 chance out of 10 at fourth
and so on until
5 luck:
5 chance out of 10 at first
10 chance out of 10 at second.
You will count the non-triggers until you get a lucky hit: then start counting again from beginning. |
Guyb u are wrong
It is like roulette
U can go 10turns without luck when having 5luck |
guyb is right
In general, troops are befallen with morale/luck according to its normal probability. In case if it hasn't trigger for several consecutive turns, the odds of getting it on the next turn increase each time, and vice versa. |
for guyb:
That's right, however I am not so sure about this: You will count the non-triggers until you get a lucky hit: then start counting again from beginning.
Try realize you have 1 luck and after first attack luck triggers... The chance in the next turn is not 10% again - it is less. Once on witchhammer there was a shedule for every luck parameter till 5 and even some variants (like what is teh chance of luck trigger when it had triggered 2 times before next turn and you have 3 luck and so on... maybe it is not so hard to make that shedule in excel)
From about the game: In a hypothetical experiment with infinite amount of triggering, the general probability is still equal to 10% per morale/luck point.
Based on you wrote it wouldn't be the true. |
I experimented with excel and I can say guyb is not right
Let's say you have 1 luck and you attacked a unit with 1 stack 3 times without luck trigger. In your next turn the chance to trigger it is 21.54%. If luck triggers then, the chance to trigger it again is 16.68%. When it doesn't trigger in next attack, the chance is 21.54% again and so on
It is 100% sure in case the luck/morale parameter is 1 that after 9 turns without luck/morale it will trigger in 10th turn (but only if before the first turn without luck there weren't any turn, otherwise it can be different)
So when the luck parameter is 1, your chance to trigger it is:
before 1st attack - 10%
2 - 12.92%
3 - 16.68
4 - 21.54%
5 - 27.83%
6 - 35.94%
7 - 46.42%
8 - 59.95%
9 - 77.43%
10 - 100%
If luck triggers in first attack then the chance in next one is only 7.74% and the chances in next turns are again 10%. 12.92%....... till luck triggers again
If luck triggered in let's say 7th turn since the beginning of the combat (when the chance was 46.42%), next time it will be 35.94%
Is it clear now? |
I made a little mistake :p I am sorry, the true is only the part:
So when the luck parameter is 1, your chance to trigger it is:
before 1st attack - 10%
2 - 12.92%
3 - 16.68
4 - 21.54%
5 - 27.83%
6 - 35.94%
7 - 46.42%
8 - 59.95%
9 - 77.43%
10 - 100%
Sorry again |
