| Author | TGI, Long term economic prediction discussion |
|---|
Supply and demand
Current price 350-400k
Current Supply?
Trends for these? |
Maybe you should post your thoughts about this issue first, if you are hoping for interesting discussion?
Personally, I think that TGI prices will raise to 470-500k in three monthes.
The main reasons would be - players who advance levels will not have TGI bonuses to ini (and +3-4% ini is a quite big boost) and would find it harder to compete against older players who already have bonuses. Thus, the demand will rise and prices will rise too.
Still, as total population of this server isn't very big, the prices wouldn't skyrocket. |
| Elements were predicted to rise and they didn't. |
i don't think the prices will rise much
there are not that much people out there trying to desperately get a TGI AND having 300-400k Gold around. For that much gold they might as well just buy a pendant of despair from time to time (and therefore nearly equalize thief advantages)
and since there is no borrowing anymore there will be much less people able to get it anyway. This results in lower demand and therefore lower prices for TGI. Also a TGI becomes a rare luxury, it is no longer standard on high levels. This leads to less demand too
so all in all i think prices will remain constant. There may be few people more buying it but still there are too much free TGI (since some people like me got 2 TGI, on TG lvl 2 and 4). Especially since buyers won't buy it for much more and sellers won't sell it for much less
maybe prices will skyrocket in about a year, that's at least my guess (when there aren't dozens of TGI floating around anymore) |
There is a TON of TGI in players' inventories. It will take months, if not years, for this stock to be depleted with the arrival of new players.
At the moment, most medium to high level players able to afford a TGI are already thieves. Not many new players manage to gather the 350K and more required to buy one (and they can opt for the Diamond route too). Should they have the gold, there are various fancy stuff to spend one's wealth on (Estates, enchantments, rare artifacts), the highlight is not much on TG these days.
Moreover, admins created plenty of new incentives like Estates and their upgrade to push existing players into spending their gold; TGI sales is a way of funding these, leading more people to get rid of their TGI on the market.
Yet, it's clear that the overall number of TGI is bound to decrease. Few thieves will ever make it to TG level 5 under new rules. For this reason, my prediction is a very slow rise. But punctually, a special event might push people into selling their TGI for immediate cash, leading to temporary price decreases. |
The updates concerning enchantments was supposed to increase the demand for elements since more are needed for high percantages.
This lead to lot of players enchanting their arts before the update took place. So what we now see is a decrease in demand because player who could afford it already enchanted their arts and player without huge ammounts of gold aren't interested in making new ones.
With TGI it is different. Here the update reduced the source of TGI as now only 1 is given at level 5 opposite to the 2 TGI's at level 2 and 4 before the update.
Poor player can't afford to go for TGI at the moment as renting is no option any more. But the demand will increase in the future as more and more players reach higher level and are desperate for those ini% bonus.
The trend for rising TGI prices is already obvious on the market as the prices have increased from about 360k to 390k in the last few month. When the stock of available TGI's is used up new ones will be hard to come by as any new thief must reach level 5 before he can sell his gained TGI.
Therefore I see prices for TGI rising even more strongly in the future than in the past. |
I would like to see the new player on com who will be able to buy a tgi (at over 400k) at lvl 6 to start thiefing. Now it's almost impossible. Unless you are an experienced player on ru and want to play also on com, you can think a tactic to get to that goal, otherwise you will start thiefing at a very high level. Or just use diamonds.
I think the price will rise in the future, but not too much (somewhere ~ 450k).
The real problem will be with continuous lowering the total no of TGIs from players. |
I am a quite new lvl 7 and i'll post my humble opinion:
Obtaining a TGI at lvl 6 without diamonds is nearly impossible.
At lvl 7 i'm not even dreaming of it cause i'll need to build tier 5 units and upgrade tier 2 units at lvl 8 so i need to save money...and i can't remember maybe even magic guild lvl 2...so even lvl 8 is not a great option to start saving money...maybe at lvl 9 but min AP will increase and so i'll need to spend more for that and hunts/MQ will start to get harder...then for high lvls i'll need to buy more arts or i'll not be able to fight equally to other chars(i already have this problem at lvl 7 i'm scared of what i'll find at higher lvls)...390k+ gold are not a target within my reach if i want to do more then simply enroll 10 times then hunt for something like 3 months... |
@8
As I can see from your "Laborers' guild: 1 (172) +8" you haven't been working much on your way to level 7.
Obvious level 6 players will have a hard time to get a TGI by other means thant diamond, but I started thieving at level 8 and I didn't rent it but rather bought a TGI.
03-19-09 17:10: Received item(s): 'Thief invitation' [1/1] from Link . Transaction price: 385000 Gold.
Actually at that time the prices were comparable to prices on the market right now.
So earning enough gold for buying a TGI at level 8 isn't impossible. |
@8
As I can see from your "Laborers' guild: 1 (172) +8" you haven't been working much on your way to level 7.
Obvious level 6 players will have a hard time to get a TGI by other means thant diamond, but I started thieving at level 8 and I didn't rent it but rather bought a TGI.
03-19-09 17:10: Received item(s): 'Thief invitation' [1/1] from Link . Transaction price: 385000 Gold.
Actually at that time the prices were comparable to prices on the market right now.
So earning enough gold for buying a TGI at level 8 isn't impossible.
i know that my LG is low in fact i nearly stopped every pvp fight and i'm doing only MQ/hunts and enroll since lvl 6...but still i think that 390k is not that easy to reach thinking that at lvl 8 i'll need to build Priests+crossbowmen+magic guild lvl 2...i hope to be wrong^^ |
The trick with laborers guild is that the more you work, the better your level, the better your income. So you not only gain more gold because you work more often, but also because you will earn more gold per work hour.
So your income increases more than linear if you work a lot. |
| ye but i'll need a total of 130k gold to build everything(controlled on Witchhammer)...with the 30k gold bonus for lvl 8 it will become 100k...still a lot XD |
OK first off huntress, I consciously wanted other opinions without coloring the discussion with my own at the beginning.
The element debate is different entirely although it may be said that the two matters mirror each other - in that both endeavors have increased in cost, one way or another.
Market prices remain fairly constant it's true. Also there are many who reached tg4 before the new rules. But remember new players stimulate the demand which is surely increasing while supply is decreasing. This would suggest the price should increase, but it seems there are many other factors which result in a fairly nonvolatile market.
Disregarding all the above, my crystal ball prediction: TGI Price trend upward long term ;) |
| 12 point is u should have labor guild 3-4 by that time if u had labor guild 3-4 now those 100k wouldnt be such problem :) |
| sob...at least i'll reach LG 2 soon...i was noob and the tutorial"reach lvl 3 and then build swordsmen" deceived me so i did tons of pvp sob |
| 15 hehe made the same mistake till lvl 5 did almost only PvP. But atleast back then no AP was needed for hunts :) |
| 16 lucky you XD |
DONT go off topic much pls.
back to the topic, i would say: it depend on how much player in this server can AND willing to buy diamond for that.
more players buy diamond to join TG = less demand on TGI = cheaper.
on other side, you should be able to get enough gold if you are not lazy to enroll. my bro bought a TGI while lv5 with his enroll gold before the rules implemented. sure, someone might say it is still cheaper, but my bro treasury can allow him buy 3 TGI at that time ;p |
When I bought my TGI it was for 500,000 and I see no reason why the price shouldn't return to this level.
I think the number of TGIs in the game will increase, but very slowly, because
1. if a player buys one with diamonds, it adds a TGI to the system
2. if a player buys one with gold, the player was disciplined enough to raise the money and will likely make it to TG 5, so the TGI is conserved (exception is if someone used illegal means to obtain the money)
The catch is that the TGIs are blocked for a long time, so I think the price hasn't risen to a stable level yet. |
this stock to be depleted with the arrival of new players.
Especially cheaters should deplete the stock if taken care of. 1 in 3 TGI sales seems to be to an obvious cheater, other 1/3 is to refunded wizards. So later on, we can expect only 1/2 of TGI`s to be sold to a fair players.
So if law works, TGIs will be scarce sooner or later. |
