| Author | MG double element system broken? |
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| I have now completed 180 mercenary quests since I got MG 4. I was supposed to gain the ability to get 2 elements as a reward from quests. But in 180 successful quests at MG 4, I have gotten 2 elements as a reward a grand total of 0 (ZERO) times! How is this possible!? Is the system broken? Does Mercenary level 4 no longer give u double elements? |
| I had two elements for one quest only once I think. And I got few more mercenary points than you. :-) The chances are just pretty slim I guess. |
| The chances of a double element is very low. Possibly about 2-4%. I have got about 6 double elements so far. |
| I guess they are fairly slim because in over 250 quests you only 2x elements once. Was that formula ever revealed of what the percentages are? |
| i've received double elements two times within the last week, so it still works:) |
| Was that formula ever revealed Nope, none of the element chance formulas have been officially revealed. |
According to what someone suggested in the past - double element means you got 2 x chance for single element for each quest.
This means chance to get 2 elements is 0.2*0.2 = 0.04 -> 4% and chance to get at least one element is 1 - (1-0.2)*(1-0.2) = 0.36 -> 36%
Don't know if this theory and subsequent numbers are correct but the 36% figure seems to be approximately accurate in my case. The 4% however is far bigger than I have had so far so I can't really tell. |
Jabbar, do you have your calculations right?
AFAIK chance you get at least one element is 0.2 = 20% - this is the reason why you used 0.2*0.2 for calculating the chance of getting 2 elements - server rolls again if you get one element. |
| I have had double elements 7 times, the last one was yesterday. |
| This game is bugged! |
This game is bugged!
Please! :rolleyes:
As long as people receive double Elements sometimes, there's no bug. After all, as they say, the formula for double Elements have not been revealed. As long as it's greater than zero, there is no bug.
Being able to receive double Elements doesn't mean one is entitled to receive them often. |
Jabbar, do you have your calculations right?
AFAIK chance you get at least one element is 0.2 = 20% - this is the reason why you used 0.2*0.2 for calculating the chance of getting 2 elements - server rolls again if you get one element
[Chance to get at least one element] = 1 - [ Chance to get no elements at all ].
Chance to get no elements at all is (1-0.2)*(1-0.2)
That's what i used and it assumes that server rolls twice and the two rolls are independent. ( assumption that might of course be wrong ). |
Jabbar,
in a former post it was said that:
- chance to get 1 element: 20%
IF (and only IF) you get 1, then there is a chance to get a second one:
- chance to get 2 elements is : 20%*20% = 4%
So, your calculation is wrong because it is based on the assumption that the 2 rolls are separately done, while according to this "theory" they are done in sequence ...
I also remember that people mentioned that the chance for the second element must be less than 20% because overall the average chance to get 2 elements has been observed at about 1%. if this is correct, it means that the second roll is done at 5% chance (20%*5% = 1%) |
I'm with OndaNera on that one.
High MG level allows the hero to gain up to two Elements for a successful quest - but it doesn't make the 1 Element outcome more likely. |
Many players are confuse about the word 'chance', I think.
Let's imagine this way using roulette as a methapor.
We have 100 numbers (from 1 - 100).
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ... 100
The roulette will pick 1 number only. That means the probability of each number is 1%.
Now if everytime the roulette runs you bet on 10 numbers simultaneously (let's say number 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10). It means that you have 10% chance of winning.
But it doesn't mean that if you play for 10x, you will be guaranteed to win at least 1 (10% = 1/10). The roulette can and may pick random numbers like :
9, 43, 22, 23, 40, 40, 20, 54, 39, 40 (you can continue by yourself).
If you are very unlucky... the roulette can goes for 20x roll, and you will win nothing (despite that you have 10% chance) :((
What I want to say is:
Having 10% chance, doesn't guarantee that you will get it 1 every 10x. |
| oops.. sorry, the first example of the roulette result is '19'. I accidentally delete the '1' :( |
MG bug had fixed by Alexandr (Adm)
https://www.lordswm.com/forum_messages.php?tid=1870837 |
| mmmm ... I do not know ... I had a lot of elements in the past week ... maybe they fixed the dragons bug? |
I had a lot of elements in the past week
Me too, not a lot, but quite a few. Though I haven't once receives double elements. |
According to what someone suggested in the past - double element means you got 2 x chance for single element for each quest.
I think this is not right. If you get elements in 36%-40% of your quests, great, congratulations. But my elements chances didnt increase rapidly after hitting the famous 2 elements possibility level. It might be just a second roll of luck when the first one is a success. |
