Forums-->General game forum-->
1|2
| Author | Roulette Theories |
|---|
Chimimorio I know the results should be quite the same as those first 2 but would you mind trying to count the probability of losing in Martingale for single numbers? Like every bet has a chance 1/38 and you raise your bet everytime by 1/36 to keep up with the losses. I know fusei did some math proofs for this but she didnt show the exact numbers like you. Just if you have time and will for it. :-)
The Martingale doesn't work no matter what you bet on! Every next bet gives you higher chance to win but increases your loses, simply put gambling is the same as taking drugs every next time you take more drug you feel greater pleasure but the more you take, the more you ruin your organism! Gambling can only be successful if you are LUCKY! No other option is available! I can see that many of you speculate that you can win, YOU CANNOT, casinos wouldn't exist if you're winning in them! BTW in a real casino it's actually possible to win, but not on roulette, because of this the speculation goes to this game because some of you think that winning here works because the roulette is programmed to give certain numbers in certain intervals of time, that is not true...Let me explain - when you go to a casino there are some machines that have three rolling bars and if all show "JACKPOT" you win some kinda prize. These are the machines that make 2/5 of a casino's profits, because they are programmed not to have RNG but instead to show "JACKPOT" in an exact interval of time thus taking more money then they give to the gamblers! This cannot be true to a roulette because you can win by betting both on red and black... | Chimimorio I know the results should be quite the same as those first 2 but would you mind trying to count the probability of losing in Martingale for single numbers? Like every bet has a chance 1/38 and you raise your bet everytime by 1/36 to keep up with the losses. I know fusei did some math proofs for this but she didnt show the exact numbers like you. Just if you have time and will for it. :-)
i did some maths and although i don't expect myself to be a relyable math solver here is what i found out:
if you would never lose, your actual win would be 3324,4% each time each number rolls once. (assuming they all roll in the right order)
what you lose depends on your gold limit
if you would be bankrupt after 1 turn it would be (of course) 37/38*(bet)
the amount of gold you lose per turn depends on when you declare bankrupcy
so you would lose e.g. if you start with 1000 times of your initial gold after 123 times not hitting the right number in a row (so if you start with betting 100 gold every time you would then have lost 100.000 gold which is a lot). Now you say this won't happen but the chance for not to hit the right number 123 times in a row is at 3,8%! If it happens you would actually have lost 30,92% of your initial bet each turn (resulting in an average loss of 30,92 gold each turn)
weird is, there is an optimum loss. When you lose 1368 times in a row (and increase every time by 1/36) you will only have lost 7,15% of your starting bet each turn. After loss number 1369 it goes upwards again (losing more each turn). This happens through multiple linear and exponential functions overlaying each other. But i doubt this will happen since it would require 6,83*10^17 of your initial starting gold in total (with a bet of 1,90*10^16).
So basically i would say this system works if there weren't some difficulties:
a) you may lose about 30,92% of your initial bet each turn but win 3324,4% each 38 turns (=87,48% of your starting bet each turn). This doesn't work out since you won't hit the right number always after 38 bets. Although i didn't take the time to calculate it out (but i suppose it's just the middle so the number coming every 38 turns would be best if the number comes 1 time out of 38 rolls) there is an optimum. So not hitting the number at the right time will significantly decrease what you win (like not hitting it for 111 turns and then getting it 3 times in a row will result in only getting an average of 74,6% each turn).
b) the lack of Gold. As i mentioned before, although it doesn't get up that fast it still requires a lot of gold (as every martingale system). And you need to start at least with 100 gold here since increasing your bet by 2,77777% each turn won't be that easy with only 10 starting gold
c) you need to play roulette every 10 minutes (when do you plan to sleep/work/eat?!?)
d) since you can't bet too high as a starting bet you won't get that much (maybe about 50% of your starting bet each time you play). 50%*100 Gold = 50 Gold each 10 minutes = 300 Gold each hour -> enrollment with a decent skill will give you more ;)
e) the random generator. Yes, it is random and the system doesn't remember. However, if you roll infinite times it will give you each number each 36 turns exactly once (maybe not in the right order but in average). However, imagine the roulette rolls nearly infinite times (as much as you can imagine that. Maybe start with a million times). During that many rolls the system might work but if you only play for a week (10 hours a day = 70 rolls) you barely scratch at the proportional dispertion of numbers. So there still is the risk that you play at a period that is not a closed system with infinite numbers and therefore not accurate, you may still have huge losses
f) some more things i can't remember anymore ;)
if you are willing to take all those risks (and the time to spend on useless virtual gold) i would say it is worth it, unfortunately i don't hav | If you increase your bet every time you loose by 3% these are your stakes:
(I have to do some calcs about chances of getting your number in 100tries, but I do not have time, sorry)
1 100.00 3.00 103.00
2 103.00 3.09 106.09
3 106.09 3.18 109.27
4 109.27 3.28 112.55
5 112.55 3.38 115.93
6 115.93 3.48 119.41
7 119.41 3.58 122.99
8 122.99 3.69 126.68
9 126.68 3.80 130.48
10 130.48 3.91 134.39
11 134.39 4.03 138.42
12 138.42 4.15 142.58
13 142.58 4.28 146.85
14 146.85 4.41 151.26
15 151.26 4.54 155.80
16 155.80 4.67 160.47
17 160.47 4.81 165.28
18 165.28 4.96 170.24
19 170.24 5.11 175.35
20 175.35 5.26 180.61
21 180.61 5.42 186.03
22 186.03 5.58 191.61
23 191.61 5.75 197.36
24 197.36 5.92 203.28
25 203.28 6.10 209.38
26 209.38 6.28 215.66
27 215.66 6.47 222.13
28 222.13 6.66 228.79
29 228.79 6.86 235.66
30 235.66 7.07 242.73
31 242.73 7.28 250.01
32 250.01 7.50 257.51
33 257.51 7.73 265.23
34 265.23 7.96 273.19
35 273.19 8.20 281.39
36 281.39 8.44 289.83
37 289.83 8.69 298.52
38 298.52 8.96 307.48
39 307.48 9.22 316.70
40 316.70 9.50 326.20
41 326.20 9.79 335.99
42 335.99 10.08 346.07
43 346.07 10.38 356.45
44 356.45 10.69 367.15
45 367.15 11.01 378.16
46 378.16 11.34 389.50
47 389.50 11.69 401.19
48 401.19 12.04 413.23
49 413.23 12.40 425.62
50 425.62 12.77 438.39
51 438.39 13.15 451.54
52 451.54 13.55 465.09
53 465.09 13.95 479.04
54 479.04 14.37 493.41
55 493.41 14.80 508.21
56 508.21 15.25 523.46
57 523.46 15.70 539.17
58 539.17 16.17 555.34
59 555.34 16.66 572.00
60 572.00 17.16 589.16
61 589.16 17.67 606.84
62 606.84 18.21 625.04
63 625.04 18.75 643.79
64 643.79 19.31 663.11
65 663.11 19.89 683.00
66 683.00 20.49 703.49
67 703.49 21.10 724.59
68 724.59 21.74 746.33
69 746.33 22.39 768.72
70 768.72 23.06 791.78
71 791.78 23.75 815.54
72 815.54 24.47 840.00
73 840.00 25.20 865.20
74 865.20 25.96 891.16
75 891.16 26.73 917.89
76 917.89 27.54 945.43
77 945.43 28.36 973.79
78 973.79 29.21 1003.01
79 1003.01 30.09 1033.10
80 1033.10 30.99 1064.09
81 1064.09 31.92 1096.01
82 1096.01 32.88 1128.89
83 1128.89 33.87 1162.76
84 1162.76 34.88 1197.64
85 1197.64 35.93 1233.57
86 1233.57 37.01 1270.58
87 1270.58 38.12 1308.70
88 1308.70 39.26 1347.96
89 1347.96 40.44 1388.39
90 1388.39 41.65 1430.05
91 1430.05 42.90 1472.95
92 1472.95 44.19 1517.14
93 1517.14 45.51 1562.65
94 1562.65 46.88 1609.53
95 1609.53 48.29 1657.82
96 1657.82 49.73 1707.55
97 1707.55 51.23 1758.78
98 1758.78 52.76 1811.54
99 1811.54 54.35 1865.89
100 1865.89 55.98 1921.86 | so everyone who might be interested in taking a closer look onto what i did might send me a pm so i can send them the link to where i uploaded my calculations
unfortunately i fear it is forbidden to just post it here (and i would need about 15-16 posts just to post my calculations) | Yeahh I suggest : TheDeadManRIP, Bes2009, Evgenich and HeartBreakKid
Lol:)
Some talked about me:) | Ask Edwin1908
He know rolet | for Omega22:
But of course there is a chance to miss the single number 100 times in row and like all similar systems you bet too much to win very little.
The chance to lose (your number NEVER drops) betting 100 times on the same number is exactly 6,96% on a roulette where every number has 1/38 chance to drop.
This means that if you have all your life to play 100 martingale on a single number (up to 100 runs of the roulette each one) you'll have as average:
93 wins
7 losses
How to calculate:
1st run 0,9737 to lose (97,37%) --- 0,0263 to win (2,63%)
2nd run 0,9737E2 = 94,81% to lose --- (1 - 0,9481) = 5,19% to win
3rd run 0,9737E3 = 92,32% to lose --- (1 - 0,9232) = 7,68% to win
4th run 0,9737E4 = 89,89% to lose --- (1 - 0,8989) = 10,11% to win
...
100th run 0,9737E100 = 6,96% to lose --- (1 - 0,0696) = 93,04% to win |
This topic is long since last update and considered obsolete for further discussions.
1|2Back to topics list
|
