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| Author | problems with randomness in the TG |
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| If you call this normal, then I call my cat dog! Three times in the row Caravans of DE with 28+ hydras and the hero with high spell power. I understand I cannot win all, but 3 time in a row shows me a problem in the randomness of this game. | | It's perfectly normal for that thing to happen occasionally according to probability theory. If it happens all the time, then it is an error, if it happens once or twice it's pretty average ( of course depends on total amount of sample ). Maybe the chance you get 3 times in a row the same caravan is like 0.01% ( too tired to calculate right now :P ) but that is far from impossible to happen to someone. | | also, your cat is a dog! if the roulette wheel can spin 29 29 29 29 today, and 34 34 34 34 yesterday, than your cat could very well be Abe Lincoln. | Guys, I haven't asked for the extrem things, but for normality. That is not normal (as well as your numbers, LordDain) and that's my point here. There is a problem in the randomness of the caravans (at least).
And, btw, my cat hasn't started to bark yet. :D | To state that there is a problem with randomness of caravans you need a very large sample of ambushes. For example I have done around 700-750 ambush tries so far total and i never had 3 same caravans in a row - and i bet there are hundreds of players out there that never had 3 same ones in a row ( not talking about faction here only but also specific setup of troops ). I can describe several "weird" things that happened to me that probably noone else ever had ( for example i remember once i got Vanguard of Knights {22} quest 5 times in a row after repeatedly declining it ).
My point is - to make such a claim you need to get a huge amount of data and then compare theoretical probabilities with actual occurences. Otherwise everything is considered random :)
And even if indeed the caravans are not random - where exactly did you read that they should be random in the first place? :P | OK, Jabbar, I can see you are in the mood for being against my logic. One question for you: what's the point to have only one type of caravan? It's a very smart thing for one player to have easy caravans and another not to be able to reach TG level 1, isn't it? Nice way of thinking then! Would you concept such a game?
Such bugs can be rare and that's why undiscovered, but this is what I call a bug. You don't need tones of statistics to get such a bug. Once happened, it is good to be reported for the developers to be aware something can be wrong in their concept.
About your MG quests, that's your problem you haven't reported it. Actually, leaving such things unreported, you didn't do a nice thing because the developers aren't aware of all the problems in the game. | CGS the thing you are talking about is rare, considered there are about 100 caravans in game(maybe less), the probability of getting the same one twice in a row is 1/100, to have same one 3 times is 1/10000. If there are 1000 players doing 10 ambushes with such conditions, this would happen once every day. See my point? It might be nothing wrong with the randomness in this. Although I see your concern it happened to me maybe once in 500 ambushes, this happens quite often in merc. quests.
And maybe they are not random, there could be some kind of scoring system that gives you +difficulty and +probability for each caravan when you win. | For Omega22:
I understand such a concept and it would be okay with me. Still, there are a lot of difficult caravans not necessary the same. It has no sense to give me such a caravan three times in a row.
Anyway, I posted this for the developers to decide if they do something about or they accept this as a "statistical" error and do nothing about. It's up to them.
I will leave this thread open for those who have the same problems as I described to post their problems here. | At one point 8 out of my last 10 caravans, with 5 in a row, were barbarian, but were different types.
The thing about getting the same caravan in a row is that each time you lose to a specific caravan, it gets easier. By the 2nd or 3rd loss the caravan should be somewhat doable. | what's the point to have only one type of caravan?
You make this sound like random events had any sense of purpose. Things just happen with a certain probability, so if you make enough attempts you're bound to run into a given event with positive probability and if it hits you it's bad luck, nothing else, no bug, no conspiracy. Clusters are a part of randomness, too and to avoid it you have to add deterministic elements like skip repetitions or predefining the caravan sequence. | For fusei:
Have I spoken about a conspiracy? What in the world are you thinking? From a simple possible bug to conspiracy, bad luck and so on there is a long way. Bad luck in programming means your computer to get fried. Otherwise, there is not such a concept. Conspiracy? Who in the world spoke about? I haven't even complained that I lost those 3. I just mentioned a possible bug in the game.
Guys, please, read carefully before posting! | It's a very smart thing for one player to have easy caravans and another not to be able to reach TG level 1, isn't it? reads: Why do I always get the hard caravans and others the easy ones?
This plus the fact that you bluntly ignore several people telling you that there is no bug sounds to me like an implicit 'unfair'-cry.
Bad luck in programming means your computer to get fried.
Of course there is bad luck in this game for example when your efks roll 3 damage when you really could have used this 5 or when you lose your phantom force stack because an enemy stack survived with a single unit and kills you off, when you keep missing ghost when you rather shouldn't etc.
The game has a certain randomness and therefore bad luck happens to you, to me and everybody else who plays this game long enough. This game is not fully deterministic and this means you have to plan ahead if things doesn't turn out in your favour. | LOL, fusei! Your imagination went too wild this time. If I was whining about, I was posting this in the general game topic. I passed TG level 1 pretty fast, so, I have nothing to complain or cry. If I lost those, I admit I have my mental limitations, but for that I should complain to God, not to the game developers. :D
Well, what you call bad luck, I call innefficiency. If you would have fought better, you wouldn't need that "touch of luck."
Long story short, this forum topic is for reporting possible problems and not to whine about one's mental impairing. | Well, what you call bad luck, I call innefficiency. If you would have fought better, you wouldn't need that "touch of luck."
To give you an example, my best score in the tournament was 50% better than my worst, same build, same artefacts, same strategy, the sole difference was luck.
In the end you can never completely eliminate all risks, you can try to minimize them, but at a certain point any further minimization is inefficient and you just take the risk. An efficient risk control can be as important as the strategy itself. | fusei, three things for you:
1. I never count on luck in games (I don't gamble). So, if I have an extra-touch of "luck", well, I know next time it will be the oposite and I try to analize what if I wouldn't have that "luck" to improve my strategy.
2. According to what you said, your real level is about 125% from your worst attempt. Is it satisfactory for you? If yes, you shouldn't get concerned about your strategy, otherwise you should analize your strategy and try to improve it.
3. Everybody had 7 attempts, so, everybody should have been able to reach a maximum and minimum for his/her strategy. | 1. I never count on luck in games (I don't gamble). So, if I have an extra-touch of "luck", well, I know next time it will be the oposite and I try to analize what if I wouldn't have that "luck" to improve my strategy.
It's not about counting on luck, but on reacting on it, if you don't have full information you have to pick a strategy which gets you into problems only with a small probability, so just considering the best case won't get you anywhere, but you should care about average and worst case.
2. According to what you said, your real level is about 125% from your worst attempt. Is it satisfactory for you? If yes, you shouldn't get concerned about your strategy, otherwise you should analize your strategy and try to improve it.
I always analyse my strategy, I'm never happy with it.
3. Everybody had 7 attempts, so, everybody should have been able to reach a maximum and minimum for his/her strategy.
It really depends, there are some really volatile strategies that may or may not work out in 7 attempts. For example level 10 elves heavily rely on phantoms, so it really matters if the phantoms die on first, second or third hit.
I think we strayed quite a bit off topic, your original thesis was dismissed, clustering can happen and caravans are random. If you have an issue with caravans being random and thus subject to good and bad luck, why don't you bring it up in I&S forum so it can rot there peacefully. |
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